Next-generation Earth system models reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems

Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems include long-term declines in global marine animal biomass with consequences for fisheries. This new paper reveals greater biomass declines than previously projected, based on an enhanced ensemble of global marine ecosystem models that was forced by next-generation CMIP6 Earth system model outputs which showed elevated warming compared to CMIP5 outputs. However, regional variation and shifts in the direction and magnitude of biomass changes highlight the need to reduce uncertainty in projected ecosystem responses to help support climate-adapted management and policy.

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