Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change

Climate change is already altering the distribution and abundance of marine life thereby affecting the goods and services the ocean provides to people. This study used an ensemble of multiple climate and ecosystem models to perform a comprehensive assessment of potential climate-driven ecological changes in the global ocean. Results reveal that global marine animal biomass will decline under all emission scenarios, with an average 17% under business-as-usual conditions compared to only 5% under a strong mitigation scenario and with larger impacts on higher food web levels compared with phytoplankton. Our ensemble projections can inform adaptive management and conservation of marine resources under future climate change.

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